Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
